OUR SOURCE TELL US – AT 8:31 A.M. ET:  As you know, from time to time we present the views of an American expert who has spent quality time in Afghanistan.  The individual prefers not to be identified, but has given us remarkable bits of insight in the past.  Here is the latest: 

The July 2011 withdrawal date, designed to spur the Afghans to begin
to stand on their own, actually has the opposite effect. They
realize that any improvement on their own part (smooth elections,
competent governance, effective military units) increases the pace at
which the US withdraws. To delay our inevitable withdrawal, they then
have the perverse incentive to make things look worse rather than
better, hoping that we would be unlikely to leave them completely in
the lurch.

In other words, they know we will start leaving in July 2011. If they
look good, we will leave rapidly. If they look terrible, we will
leave slowly, giving the Afghan powers that be additional opportunity
to consolidate their power bases by drawing off American largesse.

By working with them on a daily basis, I think I came to understand
that they have a much different framework for making these
calculations. For us, the Taliban is a problem to be solved,
eliminated. For them, the Taliban is a reality to be lived with and
accommodated as necessary. Thus, they will be extremely reluctant to
throw their nascent Army units into a tough counterinsurgency fight
against the Taliban, especially in our absence.

COMMENT:  Hmm.  Wonder if the administration has thought of any of this.  Why don't I think so?

April 12, 2010